Sunday, May 9, 2010

Conservatives and Lib-Dems: a Done Deal.

I think I got it wrong yesterday. For the British to move from First Past the Post to Proportional Representation there would have to be a referendum. So what the Tories do is undertake to have a referendum and see what the country decides. Made an offer like this the Lib-Dems would walk up the aisle rejoicing. The outcome of such a referendum would not be a forgone conclusion so the Tories could tell themselves they are not giving PR they are simply putting it as an option to the nation. Thats cricket, thats fair; Cameron gets to be Prime Minister, the Double Glazing Salesman has his time in the sun and Labour repairs itself in opposition.
If PR is introduced, the Tories who I think have only once got more than 50% of the popular vote would be unlikely ever again to rule alone. Because, however, Britain has become a majority left of centre country solo Liberal and or Labour governments would probably become the norm. The prospect of this is the only thing that might yet hold the Tories back from agreeing to a referendum. They do rather think that they are a minority born to rule. With this in mind some Tories will be in favour of turning away the Lib Dems and leaving them and Labour to run into the sand after which the Tories sweep in with a workable majority. The danger with this play is that before the Lefties leave they pass the PR legislation. Too risky, my bet is now that the Tories will do the deal.
Interesting times. London is still cold and dark; feels like autumn.

No comments: